Rain and snow are likely overnight with localized, grassy accumulation expected in stronger gusts before sunrise.
INDIANAPOLIS — It was a deceptively sunny Easter Sunday in central Indiana. Despite bright skies for much of the day, afternoon high temperatures reached the upper 40s and lower 50s, some temperatures were 10-15° below average.
It marked the coolest Easter in Indianapolis since 2018. Fortunately, it was dry. But it will be anything but dry overnight as an area expands across the state from midnight.
Modeling continues to support the idea that there will be enough cold air and uplift to turn rain into a period of snowfall in some areas (especially along/north of I-70) between 2 a.m. and 8 a.m. Monday.
Snow rates could be heavy enough in some areas to cause accumulation on elevated and/or grassy surfaces. At this time, we expect the roads to be wet only during the morning commute. However, don’t be surprised to wake up to a blanket of slush in some places on Monday morning.
The more stable and heavier rain/snow axis will end west to east between 6 a.m. and 8 a.m. and should be entirely out of central Indiana by 9 a.m. It is therefore conceivable that late risers will not experience any precipitation during their commute to work.
Be aware that snow in April in central Indiana is not uncommon. It happened on April 20 last year and in 2018 too. In fact, Indianapolis has seen snowfall in early May in some years.
Fortunately, the snow that accumulates at this time of year melts fairly quickly.
Expect radar calm at noon on Monday before another round of scattered showers develop in cold air aloft, spreading across the state.
This will create a large spread of temperature from the surface to the midlevels of the atmosphere and make the air unstable enough to trigger “instability showers” which can look like popcorn on radar.
Temperature profiles support rain, sleet/graupel and snow showers after 3 p.m. in the evening and perhaps some thunder in heavier showers.
It will be calm but still cold before Tuesday with the possibility of another freeze.
The next rainmaker arrives Wednesday evening through Thursday morning and precedes a warming trend that swings the temperature pendulum into well above average territory through next weekend.
That’s subject to change, but it’s possible that central Indiana will enter the 80s for the first time in over 6 months (October 14, 2021).