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Blog: The storm system is moving away, but the wind remains. Winter mess at the end of the week?

As expected, yesterday morning’s brief mixing turned into a rain and wind event for our region, but snow piled up over western parts of North Carolina and Virginia.

Storm yesterday

Parts of the west had about a foot of snow. During this time, we ended up with 1-2″ of rain in our area.

Rainfall totals

This will help combat the persistent drought in the area. In fact, I think it will end the drought for some.

Today the low pressure area will move into the northeastern states. They will continue to receive rain and snow throughout the day.

Regional weather map

We have already sucked in dry air from the southwest. We will therefore have no more precipitation today (except for a possible gust on the east coast this evening). We will have a mixture of sun and clouds. However, the wind will be strong all day. It will exit from the southwest then west at 10-20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

Wind gust forecast

The winds will decrease a little this afternoon, but there will still be a breeze. Most of the area will be fine in terms of tidal flooding. There was minor to moderate tidal flooding along the healthy side of the Outer Banks this morning, but this is expected to ease. However, there can be minor to moderate tidal flooding on the east coast. It is expected to be moderate around Saxis, Va. late in the morning.

Tide forecast

By tomorrow, things should calm down. The anticyclone will settle in the area and the wind will drop. High temperatures will be in the 40s. We will hit the 50s on Wednesday with partly cloudy skies. It should be pretty cool. However, things are going to get ugly as we move into Thursday and Friday. We will have a sharp decline in the cold front in the region during the day on Thursday. Precipitation will likely start as rain, but could change to mixed or snow later today.

Model GFS Thursday

The front will lower towards the south. It will drop to our south/southeast on Friday. However, an area of ​​low pressure will form along the front (offshore). Additionally, a powerful chunk of higher level energy could pass through the area. It is therefore possible that we will still have a winter mix on Friday.

The models disagree on the amount of precipitation arriving in our region on Friday.

Friday GFS model
Friday european pattern

The European model also has more mix and snow on Saturday, but the latest GFS dried that up. As of this writing they are very different, but the GFS has switched since last night. So we’ll see. Let’s just say the forecast for Thursday through Saturday could be very changeable by then. Two differences will be the strength of the depression offshore and its distance offshore. There is still plenty of time to watch the forecast. Just keep in mind that this might be the first chance of snow piling up on the subway. We will see. I’ll have more on that in tomorrow’s weather blog.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler