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Joe’s Weather Blog: Great Today… Miserable Tomorrow (THU-3/17) | FOX 4 Kansas City WDAF-TV

It’s a mild start to the region today…we only dropped to 55 this morning…and with a slower arrival of the push of cold air today…that means we’ll be in good shape Shape up for the heat on this fun day to get out and about. Winds were gusting to 35 MPH yesterday… but today, at least for most of the day, the winds won’t be too bad it seems. They will however pick up tonight as cooler air moves into the area.

Rain will become more frequent overnight and especially on Friday. There’s always a risk of some snow mixing in as well, but accumulations appear minor to non-existent for KC. Maybe something could stick on the grass etc. to the northwest of KC.

The weekend is looking good!

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Today: Warm variable clouds with highs in the mid 70s

This evening: Scattered showers becoming more numerous overnight. Some heavy rain locally possible around daybreak as well. Depressions down to 40°. Whatever it is at 12:00 am will be the maximum for tomorrow I think. Winds strengthening from the NE at 20-30 MPH

Tomorrow: Rainy, windy and raw. Temperatures only in the 30’s to almost 40°. There may be wet snowflakes mixing together. At this point, no accumulation is expected.

The weekend: Brighter and softer. Low 60s Saturday and mid 70s with a bit more wind Sunday afternoon.

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Blog short today due to the upcoming fashion show so I have to get to work early this morning.

There aren’t too many changes needed. Instead of focusing on the chance of snow, which I’ve been doing for most of the week…and it’s still on the table, let’s focus on temperatures and rain totals. Let’s start with the rain situation and why it matters.

Despite all the snow this winter…in many cases the snow was very dry and powdery. There wasn’t much moisture in it. So either it melted and provided little moisture to the ground, or it sublimated…it went from something frozen to a gaseous state and never converted to water at all. As a result, nothing entered the ground.

We also ran out of actual rain…which caused us to be “abnormally” dry on the drought monitor with “moderate” drought conditions now showing up in Northwest MO along the MO River for the first time this year.

On the side of KS, things are a little more difficult…

Moderate to exceptional drought continues for 75% of the state… up another 3% from last week.

This system will be a predominant rain generator… with perhaps some snow on the northwest flank of the comma portion of the storm.

The model data is still quite generous with rain.

EURO model rainfall totals…1 to 1 3/4″
GFS precip totals 1 1/4-almost 2″
Canadian totals 1/2″ to 3/4″

I’m a bit concerned about the higher totals on the GFS/EURO models…I wonder if the models exaggerate the snow transition and create heavier bands to accomplish this and therefore the higher totals.

Some of the data suggests that IF we don’t make this transition…we may get lower totals due to lower lift in the area closer to KC. It’s a possibility.

My thoughts are around 1/2″ humidity to around 1″ overall for the KC zone. This would help with dryness and this moisture will be well absorbed by the soil.

The other thing are the temperatures today and tomorrow.

Today…although the winds may shift to the NE…true cold air will be a little behind. So later this afternoon we have this…

4pm today…note temperatures near 80° downtown
7 p.m. tonight-Cooler air from the north now from I-70 northbound. Still mild south of I-70
12 p.m. tonight. Cooler air flowing further south

Winds will increase towards sunset on the north side…gusts to 30 MPH are possible…spreading south.

Surface winds at 7 p.m. increasing from north to south

Rain will be common tomorrow…then the tail of the storm will move later in the day…it will be a rough windy day with a still uncertain move to possible snow…from KC NWestwards.

Another system is coming early next week…more rain probably with that. We may not be the target of the heavier rains that come with it. It could be more towards the SE of KC… where severe weather hazards will also increase. The main severe weather threats to the system early next week are to the deep south.

Monday could be a bad day in East Texas with strong tornadoes
On Tuesday the risk spreads to the east

It will be a powerful system.

Finally, a climate-related note on St. Patrick’s Day. They tend to be warmer.

Our weather image comes from Austin Hamilton in AI