Among the many fascinating things about this heat so far this month… is the fact that even after a “cold” front has passed… we are still above average. Saturday was a good example. Of course it was a strong front… crossing with winds over 40 MPH in places… but we are still in the upper 40 this afternoon… the average is around 44 °
So this month is the 7th hottest start of December and we are on an upward trajectory until Wednesday. We’re going to redo the whole strong front Wednesday night through Wednesday night… but this time there’s a bit more substantial cooldown as the weekend approaches. Nothing unusual for December though… just a more seasonal feel.
Still although no heavy snow appears for a while
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Today: Generally sunny and mild with peaks in the lower 60s
Tonight: Generally clear and soft with minimums of around 40 °
tomorrow: Increased clouds and warmer. Wind too. Cloudy in the afternoon. Maybe some sprinkles around. Highs in the lower 60s. The record is 67 ° in 1933. Low clouds should prevent this from happening
Wednesday: Temperatures start the day in the 60 ° range and we end up in the 70’s, again we will see if the lower clouds clear up a bit. The record is 68 ° in 2002. This record is achievable. The record hot the minimum is 49 ° in 1888… one of our first records too! We might not get that depending on what it is at 11.59pm that night after crossing the front line.
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Let’s start with the events of last Friday night… the devastating, possibly historic tornadoes that hit eastern MO in the Tennessee Valley region.
64 tornado reports… which should fall as we eliminate the multiple reports highlighted by the long “four state tornado” trail that passed through parts of the AR / MO / TN / KY.
They’re evaluating the length and strength of this tornado and dozens of others. Already several EF3 tornadoes with winds of at least 136 MPH have been documented. The quad-state tornado is at least an EF3 and likely higher as one gets into the thick of the destruction subject.
149 warnings were issued for 9 different states that night and early in the morning.
However, the destruction of that has been incredible. South Illinois Deaths.
The main tornado however was an incredible long duration tornado that passed through 4 states. In 1925, the deadliest known tornado… the Tri State tornado passed through 3 states and killed over 700 people.
This following graphic really highlights the evolution of the storm / tornado (s)
Research on this week’s storm will determine whether it was a tornado or a cycling tornado that faded and then returned. IF it was a tornado… it may be the longest tracked tornado in our meteorological history.
There are many videos of this storm… the night highlighted by lightning. Bad situation for everyone involved.
On the MO side… tornadoes have occurred around St. Louis, including the devastating one in Edwardsville, Ill., Outside of St. Louis.
Again, there will be comparisons to the Tri State Tornado in 1925 … and you can also see the communities potentially in the way of the Quad State Tornado.
The death toll is expected to rise for KY and elsewhere. It is possible that this was the deadliest tornado in KY history.
It should be noted that tornadoes in December are not that unusual … especially for this part of the country …
What made this epidemic more remarkable is the violence of the tornadoes… and their number of shears.
If you play on this link… you can see before and after aerial photos of affected communities.
The reasons for the tornadoes were pretty clear… why this tornado lasted so long… maybe over 150 miles will be researched… it’s really rare. Supercells go through various transitions as they evolve and this affects tornado mechanisms so that tornadoes fade away and then can come back … but staying on the ground at such intensity for so long is the rarest thing. .
History for us is the hotter air.
Strong southerly winds will develop tomorrow morning and this means warmer air is coming back in force… it also means moisture is coming from the south… and this could prevent a record for tomorrow due to more clouds. stockings that rise near or after dawn.
You can see the humidity coming down towards the Gulf Coast… it will move north later in the night.
Data this morning shows that these low clouds are rising tomorrow morning. The strength of the bridge will determine how much heat we can get… low years to mid 60s seem reasonable… there is a benefit IF the clouds are thinner or break up due to the stronger winds .
Then the winds strengthen as Wednesday approaches. Gusts to 40-50 MPH are possible and a strong wind watch is in effect for areas of approximately I-35 to the west and north.
IF the clouds break enough… we could appear in the mid-1970s. The all-time high for December is 74 °
Even starting the day, we might be in the 60s! Here are the all-weather hot lows for December. NOW IF the front holds until after midnight Thursday, we could break a record on that side as well.
The front can however cross, with more wind… after 9 pm, but the temperatures of the end of the evening drop.
Chances of rain are there with the front but not great and the coverage doesn’t look too good.
Then we get cooler on Thursday but still near or above average
I will be taking some time off this week so blogging will be infrequent. Hope another Wednesday.
Our featured photo this morning is of Kevin Short
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