NEW TVNZ POLL – Winners and losers

The state broadcaster remarkably awoke from its holiday slumber to post a poll from its starry, gold-velvet bedroom before going back to sleep.

Is TVNZ Breakfast back on screens yet, or is it still enjoying its taxpayer-funded vacation? I imagine them all rehearsing their Tik Tok dancers in Scrooge McDuck’s vault under Radio NZ where the sound of native birds learned to sing in Te Reo (at huge cost) is constantly playing while Jenny-May, Matty and Jenny laugh with the freedom of knowing you’ll never be fired from a government job.

Is he back on the air?

Christ knows, anyway – here is the first poll of 2022, of course there are winners and losers

WINNERS

Work & Jacinda: After making some of the toughest political decisions in New Zealand’s peacetime history, after ruthless and endless attacks by fanatics and lunatics and a media narrative so negative that one has the impression that Cameron Slater leads the editorial teams, Labor is still at 40%?

Sweet zombie Jesus!

The vast majority of Kiwis still support Jacinda’s approach and are forever grateful.

The caucus will be privately shocked as they were shown in their retirement UMR poll which had them at 38.

Christian Vote: The Christian vote in New Zealand never goes anywhere because it’s split between too many Christian parties that never get more than 5%, which is why Judith did this hokey staged prayer during of the last elections. In Luxon, fanatical Christians see an anti-abortion story-level servant girl and a countdown to the abduction. Christian Lex Luther is their man and that’s what fuels his rise to prominence.

ACT: I think ACT was unfairly stung by Luxon, he sucked up all Christian votes below 5%, and ACT’s earnings went down in math. If you look at the urban vote, ACT has a huge dominance in the 18-59 male demo market and I just don’t see Christian Lex Luthor appealing to them.

The naked truth is that Seymour is actually cool compared to National, when the media breathlessly reported that Clarke Gayford gave testing advice over the phone, National waved his finger and Bishop intoned that deeply inappropriate then that Seymour encouraged Clarke for the promotion of the RATs!

Likewise, when Seymour gave Luxon his Christmas card last month, Simon Bridges’ name was crossed out across the front.

ACT is just cooler than National.

ACT will gain two huge elements of culture warfare in the form of hate speech legislation and the Royal Society’s Kangaroo Court for the Woke Heresy that ACT can weaponise.

LOSERS

National: Luxon will struggle to bring back the Labor voters who backed Helen Clark who Key seduced but Jacinda won back in 2020!

This bloc of 200,000 women over 45 sees Jacinda as an emancipation from female leadership who will not feel tempted at all by a wealthy, anti-abortion-level Handmaid’s Tale evangelical CEO.

That’s not to say Luxon will fail, there’s a deep polarization in New Zealand society, but he’s unlikely to get a national over 35% on Election Day.

Green vegetables: Despite Labour’s failure on poverty, housing, significant climate change and inequality, the collection of woke middle-class virtue signals that are the Greens is about as electorally viable as a mug of cold sick sold as vegan beer.

I’m still embarrassed to vote for them. They are my team and I just wish they would break up.

NZF: When Winston claimed Harry Tam had snuck a Covid-infected sex worker all over the North Island and Labor knew about it, he wouldn’t suspect how it would become the weirdest political suicide note in history from New Zealand.

Tova: Can anyone seriously believe that no one in Today FM’s management would have checked Tova’s trade restriction clause and been so wrong? Of course we can! This is a company that programs music for teenagers too poor to pay for Spotify premium and baby boomers too scared to know how to use Spotify premium, that they missed out on something as huge as the date debut of their new stars is not at all a surprise. The best moment was when Tova got tired of making it a feminist ‘you go girl’ hashtag by going to labor court to have Discovery ‘ungag’ her only to be fined $2000 for having advertised for his new job while still being paid by his old job. Tova would be all over this new poll if she started next week. She is not.

CONCLUSION

I’m 90% confident that Labor + Green will win in 2023, but MMP’s unique attributes could come into play in Auckland, which would sneak a win at ACT & National.

I think it is entirely plausible that National will win more electoral seats than party votes in 2023, as I think a lot of reactionary male votes in Auckland may well vote National as their electoral vote, but the party will vote ACT.

I can see National winning back seats in the Auckland electorate while losing the party vote which will lead to a huge overrun in our MMP election which will increase the size of Parliament and make getting 51% that much more difficult for Labor and the Greens.

MMP Overhang could be the deciding factor in a razor close 2023 election.

The bigger question is how the cultural shock wave of 80,000 sick a day plus 400 deaths in April impacts things.

Omicron could either rally people around Jacinda as we finally realize through direct experience that she was right all along, or it could turn the nation against them as we collectively struggle to find someone to blame.

Hang on for impact.

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