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Omicron NZ Surge: winners and losers

Covid-19 Omicron outbreak: 13,606 community cases of Covid; 263 in hospital; 5 in intensive care

There were 13,606 new community cases of Covid-19 announced in New Zealand today.

There were five people in intensive care units and 263 people in hospital, the health ministry said.

We finally see the true magnitude of Omicron and it’s going to scare us.

We spent 2 years in a remarkably protected space, if we had a mortality similar to other comparable countries we would speak of 3000 deaths rather than the 56 we have. In the worst case, we will add 350 to this number over the next 6 months. This will cause shock waves.

Using such grim calculations, there are political winners and losers.


Jacinda & Labour: Politically the lives saved have been banked, the shock wave of disease and death we are about to experience will do one of two things. It creates a rally around the flag moment when the modellers’ worst fears are finally proven correct, leaving an electorate desperately grateful to Jacinda and Labor OR incompetences with RATs, confusing self-isolation rules and the closure of supply chain causes fear that turns to anger and quickly floods into blame towards Jacinda and Labour. The sword of Damocles hangs over this government.

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Public health: The remarkable statistics to date have been a victory for public health, it will be the next 6 months that we will be truly tested.


David Seymour vs. Christopher Luxon: Luxon steals whatever David suggests, the two of them fight for news oxygen like two bald men fighting over a comb. Their basic problem is this…

…these statistics are a public health victory and a public policy success. They only have impatience and anger to harvest rather than real alternatives.

Government advice: Does anyone even know what’s going on now? Phase 3 is stay home and die quietly, please? Is that right? Don’t forget to pop those bear cubs in the window.

Economy: Jacinda and Grant invested billions in the housing market and the housing market exploded. They used the failing dynamics of the free market in a market already mutated beyond recognition by the dynamics of the free market and it resulted in one of the greatest transfers of wealth in New Zealand history…

The rich nearly $1 trillion richer since start of Covid – Hickey

An economic and political commentator claims that since the Covid-19 pandemic hit Aotearoa, the rich have gotten richer and the poor have gotten poorer – in part because of government policies.

…the ripple effect of 5% inflation and rising mortgages caused by rising interest rates on the ocean of private debt is a fucking maelstrom of damage.

Small business owners who have been alphas all their lives and have clung to the freedom that cash gives them are on the verge of bankruptcy and that bitter resentment will fuel ACT.

The poor are suffering beyond the financial fears of the middle classes, food banks are increasing demand by 500% and their overcrowded existence is ripe for covid.

Hospitality & Tourism: The 2-year psychological impact of Covid has locked the vast majority of people in. Staying home and it’s become a habit now. Hospitality and tourism will hemorrhage, because even after Omicron, people’s confinement habits will not change. We haven’t had a unique cultural event like this since World War II, so the magnitude of behavioral changes has not been factored in.

Demonstrators on the lawn of the Parliament: Omicron will smash their dirt village and run through it like plums through diarrhea. Their final stand will be surrounded by ambulances, not riot police. The irony will be that just by the time Labor’s waiver warrants are issued, they will have already burned the protesters.

Message of public interest : Their decision to go on strike is so poorly timed and crude.


The complexities required to move from “Jacinda & Grant will save you, stay home” have shifted to 6 pieces of information for essential workers to navigate during an Omicron pandemic that is shutting down supply chains to get tested RAT so they can get back to work faster and sicker.

While juggling kittens and chainsaws.

Now we find out what 30 years of neoliberal experience has left us with, can the amputation of the state by the free market protect us or has it all been just one giant ideological experiment of Frankenstein who left us with a grotesquely underfunded state, too anemic to protect its people?

Let’s find out over the next few months as the state shrugs off an Omicron tsunami and says “good luck.”

After this hits and rolls and destroys lives, we wonder why we don’t fund a bigger state with a more progressive tax system, huh?

Get ready for impact comrades.

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