Predictable or smart?
July 16, 2022
Bucs offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich *dislikes* direct, probing questions.
At his weekly press conferences, Leftwich rarely answers a question without full-fledged cliches, platitudes or gibberish.
If you hit Leftwich with a direct question, he will often bristle. As in 2019, armed with data that showed the Bucs called running plays in the middle on first down an obscene number of times, Joe asked Leftwich if the poor outcome of those plays was because the defenses knew what was going to happen.
Leftwich glared at Joe and barked, “No! It was his full answer.
So Warren Sharp, the handicapper’s head stat, had a very interesting stat on Bucs play calls that Joe honestly doesn’t know if it’s clever or predictable. According to Sharp, no team has followed up a first-half incompleteness in first down with an assist other than the Bucs.
Joe guesses that’s smart. You have Tom Brady and crazy good receivers. Why not throw, throw, throw again?
So Bucs fans, what do you say? Is Leftwich’s model here sensible or just predictable?
2nd execution rate after incompleteness*
1. NYG – 70%
2. TED – 66%
3. TEN – 65%
4. WAS, MIN, CHI – 64%
7. DEN – 50%
8. DAL – 47%
10. ATK – 45%
27. GB, LAR, NE – 25%
28.SF – 24%
29. IRA – 22%
30. CC – 21%
31. CIN – 18%
32. TB – 11%
*first half of games
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) July 13, 2022