So here are the 2021 TDB predictions, how well did they stack up?
After each major pandemic, there is social unrest …
“So when our sickness and our poverty had needs greater than we could well meet; The strict orders only further enraged our grief, And hindered the achievement of relief. “
This is how the British poet George Wither explained a growing rebellion against the rules of social distancing. Viewing quarantines and closures as unfair and tyrannical punishment, people took to the streets. The year was 1625, the place was London, the disease was the plague.
… The peasant revolt in the 1300s, civil unrest in the 1600s and the civil disobedience in the 1900s. Strict measures needed to quell pandemics still make the lives of the poorest unbearable, we have yet to see the economic boost from Covid, especially among small business owners and those who were already vulnerable.
The hopeless and the new hopeless will swell globally and cause enormous cultural friction.
These waves of social disruption will reverberate through a rapidly warming planet.
RESULT: The madness of the AntiVaxxers and their ill-defined hatred confirms this prediction in great detail. 10/10
Trump and Georgia – All eyes will still be on Trump throughout January as the final days in the Bunker begin to play out for him. Is Trump a cowardly coward who pulls one last scam to shake up his supporters for hundreds of millions of people or is he really a full-fledged sociopath who will launch a military strike against China or Iran? If the Democrats can win Georgia, they finally take control of the Senate and they will have real power, the corporations won’t like it.
RESULT: The US military was so worried that Trump would launch a last-minute attack on China that it contacted them directly to assure them this would not happen. Trump’s attempted coup on January 6 was in some ways worse than a last-minute attack on another country. 7/10
China – Their wolf diplomacy to stir up nationalist fervor masks a fear of internal revolt. Expect China to violently take Hong Kong, shake up Taiwan, and threaten anyone in the West who says otherwise to send a national and international message of brutal force.
RESULT: With the deplorable crackdown on Hong Kong right now and the saber-rattling of Taiwan, that prediction was about the money. 10/10
Covid – This will continue to be a huge disruption. The problems of rolling out this vaccine for everyone will be a huge challenge that will have to become an annual ritual requiring 75% to acquire herd immunity. The logistics are huge and we’ll have the chance to reach 75% globally by the end of 2022, so the economic damage won’t really start to heal for another 2 years.
RESULT: Mostly true. 7/10
Russia without Putin? Recent rumors of his demise were apparently exaggerated, but a Russia without Putin would create a huge power vacuum in a time of great instability.
RESULT: 100% false! 0/10
Climate crisis and social unrest – Economic tensions from Covid alongside other climate extremes will see a wave of famines in 2021.
There will be pressures caused by mass migration to Western countries that will already be grappling with intense social and economic friction, expect one of Biden’s first challenges to be a wave of climate refugees crossing through. the southern border.
The excesses of the billionaires on Wall Street and their endless gains in wealth will cause enormous social distortions and lead to economic radicalization.
Social media disinformation will continue to polarize debate and create alternate realities.
RESULT: Regarding the money, the only thing I was wrong about was the billionaires in spaceships! 9/10
Rising unemployment, poverty, homelessness and inequality – We expect an additional 70,000 people to receive social assistance, unemployment to rise, and with these pressures homelessness to increase as inequalities deepen. 22,000 are on social housing waiting lists, 1 in 5 children are in poverty and property speculators are chasing generations of homeowners.
RESULT: Poverty, homelessness and inequality increased but unemployment plunged. 8/10
Crime wave – The 501s have now established their supply chains for the South American cartel meth alongside a stand-over regime on national gangs. Expect more brain hemorrhages as older methamphetamine users smoke purer, cheaper methamphetamine and an explosion of violent crime targeting dairies and bottle shops as desperate users attempt to steal for money. Guns are pouring into the country because of the methamphetamine trade. This, along with the economic downfall of the pandemic, will lead to a wave of crime across the country, giving National its first chance to play the law and order card. There is also growing extremism on the part of prisoners who have served long sentences without any re-education.
RESULT: Everything is correct, even the ISIS terrorist radicalized in prison! 10/10
Whiplash Ihumātao – The Ihumātao agreement will spark a series of similar occupations across the country as other Maori rise up against previous unjust agreements.
RESULT: There were a few in some places, but nowhere near enough to get a 5 out of 10. 3/10
Implosion of freedom of expression – Hate speech legislation has the potential to spark a debate that the left is not ready to convincingly argue. The backlash of the wake-up call in social media feeds will make people fear less for minorities exposed to hate speech and more fear of being accused of hate speech.
RESULT: It built up but will get worse next year. 9/10
Radicalization & Polarization – WWith all the economic stresses and the ease of disinformation, expect radicalization and polarization to build, not dissipate.
RESULT: Combined Maori Sovereignty Flags, Swastikas, and MAGA Flags? 10/10
Climate crisis – We will face droughts, cyclones, forest fires and extreme rainfall. The damage will increase alarmingly. Labor and Greens will push for recommendations at the start of the year for emission cuts and the Farm Lobby will swoon at any mention of the inclusion of methane. Water reforms will keep David Parker too busy to do anything else.
RESULT: Yes. 10/10
Work & Jacinda – Jacinda will increasingly be called upon by global partners to stand up and lead more geopolitical fronts. The Labor caucus will balk at the lack of real transformative change and start to agitate for far more than Grant is willing to pay.
RESULT: Not really. 0/10
National – Will continue to wander for 40 days and 40 nights in the desert. Judith will use the wave of crimes to promise public flogging, but National is too deeply dysfunctional to offer a credible alternative.
RESULT: Approximately. 8/10
Greens – More and more he will seem to support mediocrity and lukewarm nothingness. Will not be able to help themselves on hate speech legislation. Members will be increasingly frustrated by the absence of anything meaningful.
RESULT: a little. The members were far more prepared to support mediocrity than I had expected. 5/10
TO ACT – Will manipulate the free speech debate and continue to cannibalize the national vote. Will crack 10%.
RESULT: Yes! 10/10
Maori Party – Having so many targets to shoot at will continue to keep the government’s feet on fire.
RESULT: No, they went a little crazy this year with their genocide allegations and their demands to create a SIS Stasi! 5/10
Thus, out of 170, TDB obtained 121. This is a success rate of 71% compared to Stuff 57%.
The TDB 2022 forecast is released the first week of January.
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