Hello bloggers,
Would you be shocked if another warm-up was going on? It will probably go back to the ’60s later in the week. What’s going on?
The LRC is the centerpiece of a complex atmospheric puzzle. You can read more about the LRC in the winter forecast. Here is the link: There are other influences on the global weather, and I know three of them well. There is a weak and strengthening La Niña, cooling the tropical Pacific Ocean near the equator. And, there is an influence of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).
The atmospheric puzzle
When there is a La Niña, we often see patterns of precipitation pushing the greatest amounts east of KC. It seems to be in play right now. I just think that will be balanced by the bigger picture later this winter and next spring with a few wet storm systems in our area.
Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation
A bigger influence right now seems to be the AO and the NAO. These indices have moved into positive territory. When they become positive, the energy of the jet stream diffuses and travels further north. It happened last week.
Arctic oscillation
North Atlantic Oscillation
You can see the results of these positive clues by looking at the river of air above us. One way to look at this is to analyze the 500 mb level, which is about 18,000 feet above us. Look at the flow from just a few days ago, when we hit a record 71 degrees:
The jet stream is far north
This jet stream in the far north and west-to-east flow around a large polar vortex allows us to have another warm-up later this week. Watch how it unfolds between now and next Sunday for the Raiders / Chefs match:
500 mb debit valid Sunday noon
So what does all this mean? For now, that means our drought will continue for another week or two:
Dry spell
We had no rain or snow for 21 consecutive days. Today, this streak will reach 22 consecutive days. The AO positive is probably the biggest reason why this next storm will likely miss Kansas City. When that part of the cycle happened in October, the next storm was pretty wet. So let’s see if there is a tendency to revert to a more functional storm around Saturday. For now, we are going with the weaker storm trend; the storm that moves faster; and probably more wind and no rain or snow.
I’m still writing … Look for the blog that arrives around 8am.
Thank you for sharing this weather experience and spending a few minutes of your day reading the weather blog. Good week start,
Gary
